It all comes down to this. The last football game of the year to bet on. Millions of Americans Sunday will place a wager, enter some type of office box game pool or guess the score with friends and family for dollars at their small Super Bowl parties. Super Bowl Sunday not only unites America, it brings the casual fan and degenerate gamblers uncomfortably close together. It really is the only day a year where a compulsive gambler goes from being a waste of space with a problem, to an expert in his craft seeking advice from regular people. Suddenly, years of anxiety, brutal losing streaks and idiotic bets makes you an expert and even revered among your friends. “Hey I know you bet on sports, and even though you never win and go days without showering, who do you think is going to win?” It’s like our Christmas and (don’t say Super Bowl, don’t say Super Bowl, don’t say Super Bowl) and, uh, Super Bowl all rolled into one event! (Crap).If I was a legit handicapper of NFL games, I’d show you my 55%+ record against the spread (ATS) and say these are my can’t miss picks for the Super Bowl. But, not only do I pick nowhere close to that %, but I’m way too lazy to look back and even give you an accurate %. So if you have any doubt with my analysis, my advice is to pick against me (but if my pick is to pick against me, now what do you do?).
Let’s get to my official bets for Super Bowl Sunday.
How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem? O (+130) / U (-16) 1
minute 42 seconds – OVER – All the game tape out there suggests 1 minute 40 is the right time here. All the action on the under suggests everyone agrees. However, I’m going against the grain for three reasons: A) Carrie Underwood has the potential to knock it out of the park with her voice. I expect a little more grandstanding from her on the Anthem’s biggest stage. B) Recent history suggests that singers have generally gone over on this bet (Elton John and Jordin Sparks are notable Anthem-extenders). And finally, C) as BingBong advocate Jeff Alexander says “BETTING THE UNDER IS UN-AMERICAN!”What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team? RED +1000 – If you haven’t had a chance to listen to the podcast (or just don’t like the sound of two whiny Jewish voices for 30 minutes talking about nonsense), I highly recommend fast forwarding to the 5 minute discussion on what Gatorade color will be poured on the winning coach at the end of the game. You can actually listen to us getting dumber. Let’s start here with the assumption the Colts win. There is zero chance the Colts have water on the sideline – so throw out “Clear” from the equation. Additionally, I read recently "Clear/Water" had hit in 3 straight Super Bowls before last year’s “Yellow” dousing of Mike Tomlin - it can’t possibly pull out wins in 4 of 5 years. “Yellow” seems too obvious at 10/13 odds, and no one likes betting the favorite. With “Lime Green” and “Blue” never in contention, by process of elimination, I’m going with RED in a huge upset here.
What will be the result of the Super Bowl XLIV Coin Toss? HEADS - Will heads make it three straight? Is tails going to be able to regroup and stop the bleeding? Did heads make the right move by not showing too much in the Pro Bowl coin toss?
Here are the facts:
- The coin will be two sided
- One side will be “heads”
- One side will be “tails”
Because this may be foreign for some of you, I was also able to pull this from Wikipedia in the article titled “Heads or Tails.”
Heads or Tails is a coin-tossing game. Most coins have a side where the imprint of a person's head, such as a current or former head of state, is impressed — this side is called the "heads" side. The other side is called the "tails" side, irrespective of its design. Technically, the heads and tails sides are known as the obverse and reverse, respectively.
RULES: Generally, one person throws the coin up in the air, and the second person must predict which side of the coin will lay face up after it rests back on the ground. A correct prediction results in a win. Another variation has the person catch the coin in one hand and slap it on the back of their other hand. Traditionally, the second person calls out "heads" or "tails" while the coin is in the air.
Now in Good Will Hunting Style, here is my mathematical proof why Heads will win this year’s Super Bowl coin toss (If you haven’t quit on this joke yet stay with me…)
- The Spanish Armada sailed in 1588
- Christopher Columbus was Spanish, a sailor and known to wear pants in public
- Donald Duck had a tail and never wore pants in public
- Roger Rabbit had a tail and wore pants in public
- Rabbits can’t talk, that’s crazy!
- Tracey Morgan is black
- Cuba Gooding Jr. is black and played Rod Tidwell in the movie Jerry Maguire
- The human head weighs 8 pounds!
- Therefore, HEADS will win the Super Bowl coin toss.
(Note to self: Next year devote more time on BingBongSports to Super Bowl coin toss analysis)
How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning on TV during the Game? O (-190) / U (+155) 4 times – UNDER 4 – Heavy action apparently went on Archie getting a ton of face time and the line went up hard from 2.5 to 4 (which for a prop bet is a big move). At -190 there is no value betting the over here. If this game was on FOX, this would be a tougher line for me. However, CBS is a much more professional telecast. Take the under here getting great odds.
What color top will Kim Kardashian be wearing at the Super Bowl? – Any Other Color than Black or White 6/5– White is a summer color. It won't reach 70 degrees on Sunday in Miami, which isn't exactly summer weather. 
Let’s rule that out. Kardashian has way too nice a body to wear black. Black is used to hide one's shape, and she’s been peddling Quick Trim in recent weeks like her time as a celebrity could go away any day (one can only pray). In the market research consulting world, we call this sending mixed messages to the consumer and overall poor corporate branding if she come sout wearing black. What’s left? NOT BLACK NOT WHITE for the win!
As for the actual game:
O/U 56.5 – UNDER - Ignore everything I said earlier about betting the under is like betting against America. All over/under lines get inflated up because no one wants to root against points and we almost always envision higher scoring games than actually happen. Despite two ridiculous offenses, these are also two very solid defenses to just let up 57+ points easily. Throw in the game jitters players will feel Super Bowl Sunday, and you have to expect some choppy play early (drops, punts, conservative play calling, etc.). I think the game starts slower than the hype, and it will be smooth sailing to well under 56.5 points.
Colts -4.5 over Saints – With Dwight Freeney injury concerns for the Colts Sunday, money has gone back on the Saints. Hard to believe this line got as high as Saints +6 on some websites. As I mentioned on the podcast, the Colts tendency to get down in games and the Saints ability to jump out to a quick lead with their offense makes me hesitant to endorse the Colts giving 6 points. But at -4.5? I can’t bail on Peyton and the Colts - not here, not now, not ever. Recap diary coming monday. Happy Super Bowl everyone.
