It’s playoff time in the NFL and from a gambler’s perspective it’s time to dig deep. The lines are too good – too right on to make any bet with the same certainty you would have had betting say the Colts to cover against the Rams early season. A few things to think about:- Go with your gut off the bat and never look back. If you try to analyze a three point spread in an obvious tight playoff game, you’ll likely go on tilt and lose your mind way before kick-off.
- The masses are asses. Bet the opposite of where the action is going. Last week when the Packers-Cardinals line moved from the Pack being a 3 point underdog to a 3 point favorite…that should send off a red flag. Arizona at home getting 3 is a solid bet to begin with, but throw-in the public heavily betting the Packers? It was a lock.
- Opposite theory. Everyone has a tendency to bet the favorite because hey, they are favored to win who says they can’t cover 3 points? Just go the opposite of your gut and don’t look back.
So basically my advice is bet your gut, bet against the public and bet the opposite of your gut. Maybe #1 and #3 cancel out, thus giving you #2 (bet against the public). If everyone could now please print the first part of this post and light it on fire…I think we can move forward.
Now that you thoroughly have no idea which way to pick this week, here are my picks:
Cardinals +7 over Saints – Anyone who thinks the Saints defense is going to slow down Arizona is dreaming. The Saints D declined significantly toward the end of the year and the Packers last week were one of the best defenses in football and got dismantled by Kurt Warner and company. Throw in the fact the Saints stopped covering their big spreads late in the season, and this one to me is a no brainer. The Cardinals are not 7 points worse than the Saints.
Jets +8 over San Diego – Are the Jets due for a classic “stink up the joint performance?” Absolutely. But this is the playoffs and any team with a defense as good as theirs, it’s hard not taking the points. Does this team remind me a little of the 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer at QB? (Sadly, I think Dilfer might be better than Sanchez right now) A little - that’s the scary part. Jets money-line anyone? (And yes, you can blame me for ‘smushing’ the Jets chances in this paragraph – Ronnie from Jersey Shore style.)
Colts -7 over Ravens – I think the Colts are going to come out on a mission. The Spurs of the NFL cruised into the playoffs and will now turn up the intensity. Considering the Ravens haven’t beaten the Colts since 2002, I think there is a solid chance this game gets blown open early. As well as the Ravens are playing, Manning is on a mission. This is probably the game I would stay away from, but if you ‘have a problem’ – when in doubt take the Colts.
Vikings -3 over Cowboys – I think the Cowboys, after beating up on an uninspired Eagles defense the last two weeks, will run into a buzz saw Sunday. The ‘Boys are not this good people…the Eagles were just that mediocre. Everyone likes the Cowboys in this game…so I’m going the other way.
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