Crystal Ball

With my first post of 2010, (and I apologize for that), I've decided to let you all in on the inner workings of a mad man.  That's right, what you are about to read are the conspiracy theories, plausible predictions, and irrational thoughts that have been running through my mind since the NFL regular season has come to an end.

Belichick-in-Chief:  Let's first begin with my conspiracy theory.  You might think I'm crazy for even suggesting this, but hear me out:  Bill Belichick will be the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs before the start of the 2011 season (if there is one).  I know a lot people may think I'm talking completely out of turn here, while others may think it's a blind leap based on minimal evidence, but let's take a closer look at this.  Starting with the obvious; who were the offensive and defensive coordinators of the New England Patriots for all three of their Super Bowl wins in 2001, 2003, and 2004?  It was Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel (respectively).  Within the last two weeks, who was just named offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs?  [Hint: the answer is listed above]  Indeed, it was Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel again.  They were hired by Chiefs general manager, Scott Pioli.  

Now why does that name sound familiar?  Well, Scott Pioli was the director of player personnel and later vice president of player personnel for the New England Patriots under Belichick.  Besides firing Herm Edwards and implementing a 3-4 defense (the same defensive scheme Belichick has had such great success with in New England), one of Pioli's very first moves as general manager was trading for quarterback Matt Cassel.  Cassel, as many of you know is the quarterback who took over as the starter in New England when Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game of the 2008 season.  Cassel went on to lead the Patriots to a 10-5 record as a starter, just missed the playoffs, but posted an 89.4 quarterback rating.

I'm sure any good sports fan reading this already knows all of this.  I'm just stating the obvious.  Nothing I've said proves anything other than the fact that Scott Pioli is merely trying to replicate the model of success that thrived so well in New England.  Although here's where it gets tricky.  The official terms of the Cassel deal were that the Patriots traded Cassel and outside linebacker Mike Vrabel (the "heart and soul" of the Patriots defense, if you will) in exchange for the 34th overall pick, yet there were reports at the time that New England had a much better offer on the table for Cassel.  One deal in particular was a three-way trade that would have given the Patriots the 12th overall pick without having to part with Mike Vrabel.  As the above link suggests, there were a few explanations for why the Patriots may have turned down this offer, but to me it reeks of a shady under-the-table dealing between Belichick and Pioli.

Where's the motive for Belichick to leave though?  Sure, all the above information is interesting (at least to me), but why would Belichick leave New England for Kansas City?  Why would he go from the big city where he's heralded to go to a fledgling small market franchise?  Well, it's a lot like the advice Sonny gave to Calogero in A Bronx Tale when asked if he'd rather be loved or feared, to which Sonny replied, "I would rather be feared.  Fear lasts longer than love."  Sure, Belichick is loved in New England, but how many more harsh criticism of first-round home playoff losses or "4th and 2's" will the city of Boston and owner Bob Kraft endure before some of that love starts to fade?  I mean, it has been almost five whole years since he's won a Super Bowl for that city.  So once the love does fade, who's to say Belichick won't do some serious thinking?

On the one hand, Bill certainly doesn't take well to criticism.  He's in a division with an emerging potential powerhouse in the New York Jets.  His best receiver turns 33 in a few weeks and the two hit a bit of a rough patch during this past season.  His next best receiver is a speedster who may miss a substantial portion of next season after suffering significant ligament damage to his knee that will require surgery and plenty of rehabilitation with no guarantee of returning to form once he is ready to play again.  He has an underachieving defense with the wrong combination of veteran depth and young talent save for one or two budding stars.  Then there's his quarterback who will also be 33 by the start of next season and -- in my honest opinion -- seems to truly lack the passion he once had for the game.  I will admit, as many of my friends will tell you, I do not like Tom Brady.  I make no ways around it; I do not like him, BUT that's a conversation for another day (when I have 300 pages to burn).  

Whether I like him or not though, you can't honestly tell me when you look at him at a post-game press conference wearing a designer leather jacket and a hat with a custom-designed "TB" logo embroidered on it -- (no, he's not a spokesman for the National Tuberculosis Association) -- that you see the same kid who was shaking his head in disbelief after winning his first Super Bowl.  You just can't.  I'm a Packers fan and, while it kills me on a much deeper level, I can't help but smile when I see Brett Favre at 40 running down the field, hands raised in the air, celebrating a touchdown the same as he did when he was 25.  I just don't see that passion and enthusiasm out of Brady anymore.  Just go ahead and Google him.  He's the only Hall-of-Fame quarterback who has more GQ poses and "red carpet" pictures come up than actual pictures of him playing football.  But you want to know the worst part??  I don't blame him!  I actually get it.  Even when I watch him lose a big game or have a bad day, as much as I love to see it, at best the most hurtful thing I can scream at my TV is, "Awwwwww, poor baby!  Better go home and cry to your beautiful supermodel wife!"  Honestly, that's the best I've got.  He's 33.  He has his Super Bowl rings.  His plaque in Canton is assured (unfortunately).  He's already suffered one very serious injury and he just had a baby with his gorgeous wife.  I gotta say; if it was 20 degrees outside and there were 11 angry gentlemen waiting for a chance to rip my head off, with all the things I just mentioned, I'd probably pause in the middle of lacing up my cleats too and say, "Why am I doing this again?"


So now take all those reasons and add this into consideration.  In Kansas City, Belichick would also have free reign to do whatever he wants and the fans would worship the ground he walked on just for coming to their team, forget about actually winning.  He'd be reunited with his two most successful coordinators.  He'd have a quarterback who has proven capable of running his offense successfully and is five years younger than his current quarterback.  He'd absolutely terrorize the AFC West.  He'd used the Raiders for scrimmages twice a year.  The Chargers have a coach who might as well stay home for a big game, [keep running LT up the middle against the Jets, Norv; I'm sure the 12th time's the charm].  Obviously, he'd relish the opportunity to play the Broncos and Josh McDaniels twice a year, as Bill has shown a penchant for beating up on his former assistants.  So if and when the Beantown love fades, is Belichick really the kind of guy who will stick around in a place that criticizes him or will he want to go to a division where he's feared and build a second dynasty?   

It's tough to say really.  Although there is one major flaw in all my thinking, as a Patriots fan friend of mine so eloquently put it, "Why the hell would Belichick trade to get three 2nd round picks this year if he's gonna leave the team?"  It's a solid argument, to which I would have to say, a) I never said he'd leave right now, but rather by the start of the '11 season and b) that while Belichick made trades to ensure the Patriots had four draft picks in the first 53 selections of this year's upcoming draft, if he chose to leave for Kansas City this off-season, know that the Chiefs also have four picks in the first 68 selections -- keeping in mind that two of those picks are the 5th and 36th overall selections, while the Patriots' earliest pick is 42nd overall.  Also, who's to say more shady dealings with the Chiefs aren't on their way?  I don't know.  I'll admit it's all pretty far-fetched, but tie all those reasons together and add the fact that he'd be reunited with Scott Pioli and I think this whole thing is worth at least one curiously raised eyebrow and a hearty, "Hmmmmm..."

Am I making much ado about nothing?  Perhaps.  Could I be absolutely dead wrong?  Probably.  Will they ever make another live-action Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles movie?  Actually, yes.  [It's slated for 2012, so sit tight.]  However, whether you actually think I'm on to something with this or you think I need to lay off the Red Bull for a while, I leave you with a few words Bill Belichick released in a statement to the press the day Scott Pioli was hired by the Chiefs:

"...Now with the opportunity to steer his own ship and a vision of building a winner, there is no more capable, hardworking, loyal, team-oriented person than Scott Pioli. On a personal level, the Belichick-Pioli bond runs far deeper than our workplace, as we and our families have shared countless memories away from football. Working side by side with one of my best friends for almost two decades is special enough in itself. But to help each other achieve success beyond our dreams is a blessing and something I will always remember and appreciate."

USC-attle:  This one isn't even a mystery to me, it's practically a guarantee.  Frankly, I'm exhausted from all my Belichick-theorizing so I'll keep this one simple.

• What NFL team has three players on its current roster who were also part of Pete Carroll's back-to-back National Championship teams at USC?  The Seattle Seahawks.  
  

• What NFL team did Pete Carroll just become the head coach of?  The Seattle Seahawks. 
  

• From 2003 through 2005, which three players combined for 185 rushing and passing touchdowns for USC?  Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White.  
  

• Which three current NFL players either have diminished roles and/or are unhappy with their current role on their team?  Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White.  

Now wasn't that easy?

-Dave

(I can't believe I almost forgot about this magazine cover, thank God for the internet)