Gamblers Anonymous: #27 and Week 9 in the NFL

During the 7th inning Wednesday night as the Yankees were bringing in Damaso Marte to face Chase Utley with 2 runners on, I began to reflect on the last 9 years of the Yankees. Well first, I was freaking out about bringing Marte into the game. He was actually a member of my American League only fantasy team until he gave up 6 earned runs opening day, which I was also in attendance for. And despite the fact he pitched well during the playoffs, I really haven't shaken that stink bomb from him all season.

But after that panic attack, I started thinking about the heartbreak vs. Arizona in '01...the early round loses to the Angels and Tigers...the HR by Boone in '03, but losing to the Marlins...and finally, the crushing, catastrophic collapse in '04 to the Red Sox. As most of my Red Sox friends would tell you, I literally lost my mind that night. I had a few chardonnays, what of it?

I kept saying to myself Wednesday night as Marte warmed up – this was it. We get through Utley and we are home free with Mariano for the last two innings. Up until this point in the game, even with a 7-3 lead and before that, 7-1 lead, I really wasn't enjoying myself. I simply couldn't relax the entire game. Finally living in New York allowed me to attend 7 of the 8 home games. While it has been an amazing to witness this playoff run in person for all these memorable games, being at the ball park for so many high energy, high anxiety games simply had me burnt out, over-tired and stressed. I was ready for it to end.

When Marte got Utley down on strikes swinging - I finally began to soak it all up - a Yankee team for the first time in years that legitimately liked each other and most important, wanted to win. You can say what you want about the Yankees being bad for baseball - the payroll, the free agent spending, etc. - but to a Yankees fans none of that stuff matters - only championships.

And now that I've finished the self-indulgent tear jerker portion of the article - I've been on a bender for 2 straight days. I smell like a mixture of Irish car bombs and tequila and I'm in a part of the Bronx I've never seen before. I believe I torched a vehicle on River Ave this morning, but that might have just been a dream. Hard to tell at this point.

Luckily, they have internet and running water here in the Bronx (who knew!) and I was able to take 10 minutes to brush my teeth and post my NFL bets this weekend for my loyal readers. Oh and anyone sitting around waiting for these picks to place bets, I just hope you don't own any major credit cards. Top 5 casinos next week when I sober up:

You won’t care about this game unless you bet it! – KC +7 over Jacksonville – the logic for this bet is in the title.

What do you know about Ray Finkel? – Dolphins +11 over Patriots – way too many points to give a Dolphins team that has proven they are good.

Phillies Suck! - Eagles -3 over Cowboys – consolation prize for Jimmy Rollins whose ego is too big to admit that the better team won.

MNF - Broncos +3 over Steelers - Denver at home on Monday night…got to take the points.

-Steve Lugerner

Quick Picks: Week 9

So I suppose our readers want me to talk about the massive sports game that still has everyone out there reeling.  I'm talking, of course, about Bowling Green's last-minute win against Buffalo on Tuesday night.  14 points in the 4th quarter including the game-winning touchdown pass with 38 seconds left -- what a game!

Okay, so now that that's out of the way, let's get onto Week 9:

Cardinals @ Bears = CARDINALS

-This is actually a tough game to predict.  By the numbers, these teams are eerily similar.  Both teams have a 4-3 record.  Chicago's defense is allowing 310 yards a game, Arizona's is allowing 329.  Chicago's allowing 21.4 points a game, Arizona is allowing 20.4 points a game.  Even on offense; Cardinals are gaining 328 yards a game, the Bears are gaining 320.  Arizona is scoring 22.4 points a game, Chicago's scoring 22.7 points a game.  Warner's thrown for 11 TDs and 11 INTs; Cutler's thrown for 11 TDs and 11 INTs.  Forte is pathetically averaging 3.5 yards per carry, while Tim Hightower is averaging an even more pathetic 3.3 yards per carry.  The Cardinals are 3-0 on the road, but the Bears are 3-0 at home.  I mean, it's ridiculous how similar these teams are.  I'm tempted to call this one a tie, but I'm thinking I gotta go with the Cardinals.  They're coming off a huge upset loss and, after five interceptions, I'm sure Kurt Warner wants to dispel any notions that he's lost a step.  Should be a shootout.  I'm gonna say the birds edge it out 31-28.

Ravens @ Bengals = BENGALS

-My second week going against the Ravens on top of an already collective 0-3 on my Raven predictions this year, but by this point of the season I have to go with the team coming off the bye week.  The Ravens looked impressive last week against the Broncos as they themselves were the team coming off a bye, but I just don't see them pulling this one out.  I won't be shocked if they win, but I'll be impressed.  Maybe my fantasy hopes for Ocho and Benson to have a big day are getting the best of me, but I think the Bengals sweep the season series and win 28-17.

Dolphins @ Patriots = PATRIOTS

-The Dolphins got lucky last week in the shape of Ted Ginn Jr. and Jason Taylor.  That kind of lightning won't strike again for a long long time.  Much like the Bengals above, the Pats are coming off a bye and are a perfect 4-0 at Foxb...err...Gillette Stadium.  While I certainly don't buy the current line for the game with the Pats at -11, I don't see the Dolphins winning it either.  Patriots prevail 27-13.

Chargers @ Giants = GIANTS

-From Kansas City to Oakland and now from Oakland to New York, the Chargers are certainly racking up the frequent flier miles in the past few weeks.  Frankly I didn't even realize the Chargers played the last two weeks until I saw their games were against the Chiefs and the Raiders.  It's a good thing they won both those 'gimme games' because now they're heading into the Meadowlands to face a pissed off team that has some serious explaining to do for their fans.  The Giants better win and better look good while doing it or else their dreams of the playoffs, let alone the division title, may be in serious jeopardy.  Giants (have to) win 24-20.

Cowboys @ Eagles = EAGLES

-Good news Philly fans, you guys are going to win something this week!  I'm not buying the resurgence of the Cowboys.  Outside of their win against the Falcons, their other four wins have come against the Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs, and Seahawks.  The Eagles defense is amongst the league's leaders in sacks and interceptions.  Their constant blitzing will force Tony Romo's game to be filled with more mistakes than an orphanage in a town without condoms.  Eagles fly 31-14.

Steelers @ Broncos = STEELERS

-Make it three in a row for the well-rested teams this week.  I know the Broncos are going to want to show that last week was a fluke, but the Steelers are simply a better team and now a healthier team thanks to the bye.  The forecast for the game is low-40s with a chance of rain.  Big Ben plays his best in cold-weather slop games.  I think the Steelers D reigns supreme as they win this one 21-7.

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week:  Michael Crabtree, WR SF.  282 yards; that's how many passing yards the Titans are allowing every game and puts them last in the league in pass defense.  I know analysts are projecting Crabtree to have a decent day and this might not look like a true sleeper, but I think Crab is absolutely going to go off.  Terrible pass defense + first home game in front of the 49ers faithful = HUGE DAY.  I'm going to go as high as penciling him in for 6-115-1.

Fantasy Worry of the Week:  Michael Turner, RB ATL.  The point of this section is to point out a player who's supposed to have a huge day and could have some trouble.  Burner's being listed as the 2nd best RB in fantasy this week by ESPN and is projected to have 115 yards and a TD by Yahoo!  I think differently.  I think he's a between-the-tackles power runner and, unfortunately for Mike, the Redskins have a well-rested Albert Haynesworth waiting for him between those tackles.  I think the touchdown might be possible for Turner, but the yardage won't be there.  Mark him down for an 18-66-1 performance -- (still a decent day by most standards, but not stud-worthy).

Enjoy.  Enjoy.  Enjoy.  God I love football.

-Dave

Burn, Baby, Burn 2.0

As a matter of fact, I did read it in 'Sports Marketing for Dummies'.  David Stern loaned it to me.  For some reason he had already marked up the whole section about how, if you can get the referees to go along with it, a league will never have bad ratings for the finals as long as they make sure one big-market team is playing -- hmm, weird?  Anyway, back to the matter at hand, HOW can you say the Saints undefeated season is going to be stopped by the Falcons?  The only things the Falcons have shown consistently this season is how inconsistent they are.  Hold the Dolphins to 7 points, then lose to the Pats, beat the Bears, then get blown out by the Cowboys, and then the Saints beat them two nights ago.

I hate to say it, but the team that's going to play spoiler for the Saints is going to be the Pats.  I know they're playing in the Superdome, but Tom Brady on Monday Night Football?  The Saints d-line can wrap themselves in bubblewrap and will get called for 'roughing the passer' every time one of them accidentally breathes in Brady's direction.  It's not going to be fair, but it's going to be how the undefeated streak ends.

As for the Colts, I'll never say that team has "no shot" as long as Peyton Manning is taking the snaps.  While I don't think they'll go undefeated either, I think they'll last longer than the Saints.  Although I'm gonna mix it up a little and not predict it to be to a big team like the Pats or Broncos.  Instead I'm looking at a team who's season has already gone to crap and are switching to the college football mindset of playing spoiler.  Which team do I speak of...?  The Tennessee Titans.  That's right.  Week 13 in Indianapolis no less.  Jeff Fisher is taking a lot of heat over that episode when he wore a Peyton Manning jersey.  He knows how to beat the Colts and that game really might be the only chance he has at saving his job (especially if the Colts are undefeated).  I'm going out on a big limb here and it most likely is going to backfire on me, but what the hell, it's the Burner.

-Dave

Bern Baby Bern! (Thank you John Sterling)

To start, the regular season doesn't matter for measuring a team if they don't win a championship. How we look at a team historically is measured by what you do in the playoffs. As great as the 2007 Pats were - they are not the greatest team ever, or really anything close.

Of course Dave, two 18-0 teams in the Super Bowl would be good for the NFL. Did you read that in Sports Marketing for Dummies? Question is will either of these teams actually do it?

I say no chance for the Colts. They are the San Antonio Spurs of the NFL. They will likely go on cruise control soon and even with Bob Sanders back, their defense is SUSPECT. Also, last week showed that when the Colts offense sputters and settles for FGs, they end up leaving even a marginal team like the 49ers in a game because their defense isn't going to shut anyone out.

The Saints actually have a very good shot to finish the regular season undefeated. Their remaining schedule is the EASIEST in the NFL. Other than Atlanta on the road, the rest of their schedule is very favorable. I really don't see this team losing at home all year, even with the Patriots and Cowboys coming to town. Plus, the Saints have shown they are better than both those teams with a revamped defense from Gregg Williams (I hate you Dan Snyder). Despite this schedule, even the Patriots (who I think are better than this Saints team) needed a little bit of luck/magic (Ravens timeout call on 4th down, Giants leading in Week 17) to pull out a 16-0 season.

Prediction: I think they could do it, but it is simply too hard in the NFL. They will lose to the Falcons Dec. 13. and go 15-1.

-Steve Lugerner

Burn, Baby, Burn

So I guess I'll get this Burner started...  First of all, it obviously means something if a team can go 16-0.  It's a highly impressive feat, but I think you may be onto something with that 'all or nothing' mentality.  Surely most of the sports world looks back on 2007 and remembers 18-1 more vividly than 16-0, even though it was an achievement no team had ever accomplished before.  However, this is a tricky year in the NFL.  There are more bad teams this year than many of us can count and from the look of the schedules, the Colts and Saints have already or will play most of them.  I think because of this rather large disparity between teams this year, it will take a perfect 19-0 to really impress the fanfare out there.  By all accounts, it looks like the Cardinals may very well be a division champion this year with a record of 8-8 or 9-7.  If the Saints go 16-0 and then lose to the Cardinals in the playoffs that's just going to show people that their undefeated regular-season record was more a product of them playing bad teams than them being a great team.

Personally, I think it's a little too early to get too excited about either team going undefeated.  They both have nine games left to play.  I feel like every year some team starts out hot and this is all sports writers seem to be able to talk about.  I still remember when the "unstoppable" 13-0 1998 Broncos rolled into the Meadowlands to take on the lowly 5-8 Giants and ended up losing 20-16.  Like I've said before, I'm a firm believer that on any given Sunday any NFL team can beat another team, so there's a long way to go.  Although I think it'd be great if BOTH the Saints and Colts went 16-0, ran the table in the playoffs, and met up in the Super Bowl.  Wouldn't that be great for football?  Two 18-0 teams, lead by the two best quarterbacks in the league, battle for the Super Bowl and NFL supremacy?  Anybody else think that?  Anybody?  Hmm?  Okay, no cream...

-Dave

Burner of the Week

"Hey BingBong, Week 9 is coming up and the NFL's still got two undefeated teams. Do you think either the Colts and/or Saints have what it takes to run the table and go a perfect 16-0? And if so, after the 2007 season, does going undefeated during the regular season mean anything unless you win the Super Bowl?" -Bill, Boston

Thanks for your question, Bill. I'm curious myself to hear what the boys have to say about this. BingBong, what do you say; two 7-0 teams worth getting excited over?

Lugie's List 11/2 - Yay-Rod??

"Yay-Rod" - That's the best you could do Daily News?

1. Look, I'm not going to take credit for predicting a Brad Lidge blow up - that's like predicting the mall will be crowded the day after Thanksgiving and being unable to find a parking spot for an hour. But after last night the Yankees are one game away from their 27th championship thanks to Lidge crapping the bed yet again. What an AB by Johnny Damon in the 9th - keeping the inning alive and stealing second and third - forcing Lidge to throw A-Rod three straight fastballs because he was scared of a wild pitch. You can say what you want about some of the Yankee performances this post season...but almost every player on the roster has had a moment contributing to where the Yankees are right now.

2. I know it has been beaten to death on this blog - and Mr. Dave Silverstein will say "he's the best player in baseball it is expected." But, the # of clutch hits piling up for A-Rod this postseason are enough to last a career. Best player or not, it is amazing how quickly he is turning his clutch reputation around.

3. Everyone is going to be talking about Charlie Manuel starting Joe Blanton over Cliff Lee on 3 days rest in Game 4. To Blanton's credit, the game was not lost by him and he did keep the Phillies in the game. However, as a friend pointed out to me Saturday, can the Phillies really win this series without starting Lee 3 times? Even if Lee wins Game 5 you are looking at Pedro for Game 6 and Hamels for Game 7 on the road. That’s just a tough hole to put yourself in down 3-1 without another 'sure thing' in your rotation.

4. I hear Brett Favre played a football game Sunday? I'll save the gushing for the MNF crew tonight and the game breakdown for Dave. Here is what we learned (if this wasn't obvious already) from the Vikings and Eagles victories over the Giants and Packers. Beating the Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, Rams, Browns and Lions is the equivalent to an NFL squad beating up on a pop-warner team. Historically horrendous football teams . It’s as far from a measuring stick game as humanely possible and I'm no longer reading anything into it (i.e. I no longer think the Giants are the best team in football - not close).

5. Thom Brennaman's gushing speech near the end of Vikings-Packers about how he hopes everyone can "move on" after Favre's return to Lambeau was painfully forced and inappropriate. I think it was the exact word for word speech at the end of the Remember the Titans. When will the media learn that outside (...does Green Bay even care for all this press about Favre at this point?), nobody cares about this story! If I have to watch Brett Favre cry in another interview/press conference I'm going to gouge my eyes out. The good news: the never ending Favre coverage and my hatred for the 6pm SportsCenter has spawned this idea for a column: Annoying 6pm SportCenter stories of the last decade. Pedro Gomez and Shelly Smith take cover. Stay tuned.

6. What the hell happened to the Jets and Giants? Cue the clip of Noah and Jared lighting each other on fire...which leads me to...

7. Amazingly, this might be the best week ever to be a Redskins fan on this blog. BY VIRTUE OF A BYE, MY TEAM DIDN'T HAVE THE WORST WEEK!!!! Best Skins moment since Super Bowl XXVI (as a Skins fan, I will take whatever I can get).

8. Let me preface this by saying I'm not greedy - while part of me wants the Yankees to win at home (currently holding tickets), due to outrageous ticket prices and StubHub fees stipulating they get half of my living assets when I die, I'll be very happy to not spend the money and take a W tonight.

9. My 'unofficial favorite day of the year', day light savings, ruined by Halloween. Because I was so inebriated Saturday night, I didn't even notice the clocks had turned back. Throw in the fact when I remembered it was day light savings, I immediately though it was an hour earlier (until someone told me it wasn't - stupid phone and cable companies). Therefore, it actually felt like moving the clock ahead an hour in the spring (my 'unofficial least favorite day of the year'). Tough life I live.

10. Sunday Night TV Ratings: Every sports announcer all weekend: F--, Dexter: A-, Curb: B+, Californication: B+, Bored to Death: C- (going to finish out the season next week).

-Steve Lugerner