There was a lot of talk this week about Brady and Manning being the top two quarterbacks of all-time, in "some order," according to a Boston sports writer. Uh, not some order: Peyton Manning #1 and everyone else starts at #2 (and I’m not convinced Brady is #2). No QB today is anywhere close to Peyton’s level. He is literally the smartest man ever to step on the football field. Which leads us into the game of the year in the NFL...1. I know you have three rings Bill, BUT HOW DO YOU NOT PUNT? HOW DO YOU NOT PUNT? If you don't trust your defense to stop a team needing to go the length of the field to win, why even line up on Sunday? How can Bill Belichick look his defense in the eye after this game and say 'I have faith in you guys'? A friend brought up the argument that maybe he just trusts
his offense that much. That still isn't a good reason to go for it in this situation. If you fail on 4th and 2 on your own 30 WITH THE LEAD, then you essentially guaranteed a Colts win (see Colts win 35-34). This is one of the worst coaching decisions I've ever seen. Additionally, the Pats carelessly burned timeouts and were unable to challenge the spot of the ball on the 4th down play, although I doubt there was enough evidence to overturn the spot. O/U of replays of ‘BELICHICK’S BLUNDER’ on the 6pm SportsCenter set at 7.5.2. It goes without saying, but it has to be one of the greatest regular season games of all time. Best two teams in the NFL, best rivalry in the NFL, best two QBs, two amazing offenses and a riveting last 4 minutes of play. I'm still sweating bullets thinking about it. Oh and because I always try to remain objective…BOSTON SUCKS!
3. I know some BingBong loyalists complain Jerry Silverberg doesn’t post enough. Who knew how much work was required to manage a fake Mike Francesa twitter account. However, please re-read Silverberg's Jets article after they started 3-0 - couldn't have been more right. Ah, to be a Jets fan. One minute you are swimming on top the division - new coach, new QB, great defense - the next minute you've lost 5 of 6 and Rex Ryan is desperately trying to line up endorsements for NutriSystem. Is there another team in the NFL that consistently sucker punches their fan base every season by week 9? Really is an impressive feat.
4. The ‘MJD fantasy kneel heard ‘round the world’ during the last minute of the Jacksonville-Jets game was an incredible video game play that most head coaches or players would never think to do. Even though the Vegas line was unaffected by MJD taking a seat at the one yard line instead of scoring a TD, I can only imagine the fantasy emails circulated regarding .1-6 point loses by MJD owners. Ouch.
5. After watching Colts-Pats, the Saints struggling against the Rams, the Cowboys and Packers fornicating the football for a half and the Chargers beating the Eagles - is there any doubt the AFC is winning the Super Bowl? I’m not convinced the Saints would stand a chance against an experienced team like the Colts or Pats.
6. For as good as replay usually is in the NFL, we had two incidents Sunday where a play couldn't be reviewed. A) The Pats spot on 4th and 2 mentioned earlier because of no timeouts and the play coming before the two minutes warning, and B) the Packers being awarded a fumble recovery when it was clear a Cowboys player recovered the ball first and was touched down. Can someone explain to me why you can't challenge that play? That made no sense and while I doubt the Cowboys were coming back in that game, it was a pretty big gimme for the Packers.
7. What did the gambling community learn this week? By Week 9 the NFL is way too good at setting the lines. Everyone has been loading up on favorites week after week and it was only a matter of time before odds makers caught up.
8. And on a more personal level, someone learned this week never ever parlay EVERY BET with the same game (i.e. Alabama-Broncos, Wisconsin-Broncos, New York Liberty-Broncos, etc.). ESPECIALLY, don’t do this when the team you are loading up on is playing against your favorite team. This is the ultimate f-u to the gambling gods and could not be worse for your gambling karma. And yes, I'm referring to the Redskins shocking win against an overrated Broncos team. The Skins scored over 17 points for the first time since the Eisenhower administration and we had a 100-yard rusher with I believe Kenan Thompson filling in at left tackle. Hooray, we will be just good enough to pick outside of the top 5 on draft day yet again.
9. Full disclosure: I have never been a huge Curb fan. I’ve watched episodes in past seasons that were so annoying and unfunny I really disliked the show. This is the first full season I’ve really watched regularly, and by my count only one of those episodes fit this mold (Larry getting his doctor’s home number was painful). Getting to last night’s episode – it’s probably the best Curb episode I’ve ever watched. A must watch for any Seinfeld fan (even if you don’t watch Curb) and I’m sure the finale next week will bring more of the same. Absolutely hysterical.10. Sunday Night TV Ratings: Bill Belichick: F-, Peyton Manning: A+, Dexter B, Curb A++, Californication A+ (another amazing episode…all shot in Hank’s apartment…brilliant).
-Steve Lugerner
9 comments:
A few Odds and Ends:
-I love the Kenan Thompson, NutraSystem jokes.
-I 100% disagree with you on the Belicheck call. This was the correct call. Let me explain why.
1. What is the percentage chance that the Pats convert that 4th and 2? They had racked up 477 yards of offense and were averaging 4.0 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per pass attempt. Let's call it a 75% chance of conversion (I think that is conservative.
2. What is the percentage chance the Colts score if the Pats give them the ball on the 28? Let's call that 90%. Again, I'm making all these estimates on the side of arguing this is a bad call to emphasize my point.
3. What is the percentage chance that the Colts score if the Pats punt the ball from their 25 yard line with 2:10 left and 3 time-outs for the Colts? Let's call this 50%. Although, I think it's actually higher.
Are you with me still?
75% chance the Pats convert the 4th and 2. If they make it, game over. So, if Pats go for it, they have a .75 chance of winning plus the odds of stopping the Colts. We called that 10% in #2 above.
Go for it Odds: .75 + .10 = .85 85% chance of winning.
Punt it Odds: We said above that if they punt it they have a 50% chance of stopping the Colts.
85% is more than 50%. Going for it gave the Pats an 85% chance of winning. Punting would have given them a 50% chance of winning.
Even if you think the Colts only have a 20% chance of scoring a TD in this situation (probably getting the ball on the 30 with 2 mins and 3 time-outs), then it still makes sense to go for it!!!
Correction:
Colts had 1 time-out left. So, we should call their odds of scoring following a Pats punt from their own 25 as closer to 30-40%. Even still this chance is much higher than the 15% chance of losing the Pats faced by going for it on 4th.
Do you disagree with me? What assumptions would you change? What percentages are off? Do you question the math? Do, you, like Lugie, not understand the logic behind adding the .75 to the .10 to determine the odds the Pats win the game if they go for it?
Don't agree with this math at all.
A 4th and 2 passing play is 75% to convert? That to say the least is overwhelmingly generous for the Pats. And, 50% for the Colts to drive the length of the field? Peyton had thrown two picks...and there were stretches they went 3 and out during last night’s game.
How about this:
-One play...which in the NFL when it is NOT 3rd/4th and inches is much closer to 50/50 or even less when your opponent knows you have to get 3 exactly yards (meaning CBs press coverage not playing off like a regular play). Almost no coach has the gusto to run the ball there and why would you take the ball out of Brady’s hands.
-If you punt...and let your defense make a play or at least force the Colts to press on a last drive...you give yourself a 25% chance of losing at best. The % is likely much lower given all that can happen on a multiple play drive when the defense knows you are passing and have to go for a TD. Remember they needed a TD here and if you pin them with a great Punt, that is a tough final drive EVEN for Peyton Manning.
It certainly is a ballsy call, but 8-12 chances to get an INT or make a stop on downs vs. giving them a short field on one play doesn't make sense to me.
I mean...the call to go for it isn't Jim Zorn going for it on the Denver 28 down 3 points bad (instead of a FG? Why would you not tie the game Jim?)...but I just think the right play is to punt the ball away and make the Colts drive the length of the field. The Pats did get stops and 2 INTs - it just seems like he didn't see his defense coming up with a stop. If that is the case well then you go for it. If the % of the Colts scoring a TD there was really that high in Bill's mind, then I get it.
Change the Assumptions:
60% chance Pats convert.
40% chance Colts score if Pats punt
90& chance Colts score if Pats go for it and fail.
Pats Odds of winning if Pats:
Go for it: .60 + .10 = .70
Punt: .60
Even under those assumptions, Belichek maximizes his team's chance of winning by going for it.
Finally, this isn't, as many commentators have said, about "having no faith in his D", this is about having a ton of faith in his O and knowing that [even if Tom Brady had a good video,] peyton manning is the best qb of all time.
Again, we agree to disagree. The main flaw here is you are calculating the chances the Pats defense gets a stop after punting way too low at only 60%. Given the Colts have to score a TD...go on average 65 yards with one timeout...the playbook is very limited then..it might be closer to 80% that the Pats get a stop.
Your “math” completely changes if you stop giving such generous %s.
Pats Odds of winning if Pats:
Go for it: .60 + .10 = .70
Punt: .80
This is all assuming you trust your defense. Belichick decided going for it gave him a better chance than punting and trusting his defense. That is the exact trade off he made. You can't hide that part of the equation when stating the conclusion at the end of your comment in order to criticize the commonly held opinion. The faith in the Pats D absolutely informs this decision.
Dogs,
Belichick was straight trippin on that play. He was hating the player not the game. Watcha say Peyton Manning? Gettin' jiggy with it. I can't wait to talk about this for 3 hours during the pregame! Kobe FEELIN IT...LEBRON THROWING IT DOWN...UP IN DA CLUB!
-Stuart Scott
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